When Strategy Meets Upheaval
What does it take for a newly designed strategy to hold when a country enters sudden political upheaval?
That question moved from theory to reality in September 2025, when GenZ-led protests erupted across several regions and the capital in Madagascar, sparking a national political transition. Just days earlier, the UNDP team, guided by its Resident Representative and Deputy, had wrapped a five-month effort to recalibrate its strategic direction and organizational structure.
The timing was almost cinematic, and the question was urgent: would any of the work still stand?
We believe that the answer to this reveals something important. Not just about the adaptability of UNDP’s team in Madagascar, but about the power of combining bold visioning with grounded, systems-based organizational alignment.
A system under strain
Over the course of 2024, the Madagascar team became increasingly aware of a need to rethink its positioning: Demand for UNDP support was rising, spanning governance, institutional reform, energy access, and climate resilience. But so were the pressures: shrinking resources, an increasingly crowded partner landscape, and signs of internal fragmentation.
As one programme analyst put it in an early workshop:We’re doing a lot. But are we doing the right things – and are we doing them together?
That simple but poignant question captured the core of our assignment. This wasn’t about reorganization for its own sake. It was about guiding a transition from a busy but scattered operation to one grounded in shared intent: strategically focused, financially sound, and operationally coherent. In a country facing widespread poverty, unreliable electricity, and chronic drought and food insecurity, the stakes were far from abstract.
Method meets mindset
From June to October 2025, we supported the UNDP Madagascar team through two interlocking phases: the first, visioning phase clarified future positioning, surfaced high-value impact areas, and designed four integrated flagship portfolios as the new backbone of the strategy. The second, optimization phase translated that vision into a fit-for-purpose structure, improved internal processes, and modeled delivery capacity and financial sustainability.
We carefully calibrated the methodology for this assignment. In hindsight, though, it wasn’t just the tools that made the process distinct (though those were robust): strategic niche mapping, functional capacity scans, partner perception reviews, and scenario-based financial modeling.
It was the way the team allowed us to draw on their contextual intelligence, and their readiness to own the process. From deep-dive positioning and foresight sessions in Antananarivo to field visits in Ambovombe and Fort Dauphin, the process amplified lived insights, reinforced shared purpose, and generated genuine momentum for change.
Unexpected stress-test
Then, just as the process concluded, the social tensions mounted and the people mobilized. Youth- led protests gained traction. The regime fell.
Could the strategy – just finalized – hold up in this radically new context?
Thanks to earlier, deep reflection and the contextual fluency of the UNDP team, the answer was a confident yes. Social tensions, service delivery gaps, and governance fragilities had already been flagged as strategic entry points, and the flagship portfolios were designed with these dynamics in mind. Rather than pivot, the team accelerated.
Under clear-sighted leadership, UNDP adjusted its rollout prioritizing engagement with civil society and transitional authorities, launching a national transition support offer, and engaging youth on leadership, civic education, human rights, and electoral reform.
A strategy built on foresight didn’t break – it smoothly adapted.
Lessons for resilience
UNDP Madagascar’s journey offers early but compelling takeaways:
Foresight builds resilience. Investing in lessons learned and horizon scanning pays off. A strategy withstands systemic shock, when it is built based on a nuanced and systemic understanding of context and possible futures.
Diagnostics create confidence. Deep analysis strengthens internal resolve and donor trust – enabling bold, timely decisions, including the phasing out of lower-impact activities.
Integration unlocks scale. Shifting from dozens of fragmented projects to four flagship portfolios brings strategic clarity, resource alignment, and narrative coherence.
Leadership and ownership drive change. External facilitation might help shape the path, but sustainable transformation requires committed leadership and empowered internal champions – as was the case in Madagascar.
For us – and, we believe, for any organization navigating complexity – this experience affirms that a carefully crafted process of combined visioning and realignment is not just valuable, but a meaningful investment in futureproofing.
